With the upcoming Presidential election, it’s natural to wonder how it might impact the housing market. Uncertainty can lead to hesitation, especially if you're considering buying or selling a home this year. You might be questioning whether it's still a good time to make a move.

Here’s the reassuring news: historically, Presidential elections have only had a small and temporary effect on the housing market. But it’s important to address your concerns so you can confidently move forward with your plans.

Decades of data show what typically happens to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates during past election cycles, giving you the facts you need to make an informed decision.

Home Sales

In the months leading up to a Presidential election, specifically from October to November, there’s often a slight slowdown in home sales (see graph below):

ome buyers may choose to wait until after the election to make their decision. However, it’s important to understand that this slowdown is typically minor and short-lived.

Historically, home sales tend to rebound quickly and continue rising the following year. In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales increased the year following the election, a trend that’s been consistent since the early 1990s (see chart below):

You might be wondering if home prices tend to drop during election years. The answer is, not usually. As housing analyst and residential appraiser Ryan Lundquist explains:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

Home prices typically rise over time, regardless of elections. Based on historical data, you can expect the current price trends in your local market to continue, unless there are unusual economic conditions.

According to the latest data from NAR, home prices rose in the year following 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections (see chart below):

The one exception occurred between 2008 and 2009, during the peak of the housing market crash—an unusual and not typical scenario. Today’s market is far more stable, and while home prices are leveling off in some areas, they are not in a general decline.

Mortgage Rates

Another factor likely on your mind is mortgage rates, as they directly affect your monthly payment when financing a home. Data from Freddie Mac shows that in 8 of the last 11 Presidential election years, mortgage rates actually decreased between July and November (see chart below):

This year, we’re already seeing mortgage rates begin to decrease, and most experts predict rates will continue to ease throughout the rest of 2024. If this trend holds—and all signs suggest it will—it’s great news for your purchasing power if you’re planning to buy a home in the coming months.

What This Means for You

The key takeaway? While Presidential elections can have a slight effect on the housing market, the impact is typically minimal. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, notes:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

For most buyers and sellers, elections won’t significantly affect their plans.

Bottom Line

It’s natural to feel some uncertainty during an election year, but history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. There’s no need to put your plans on hold. If you’re ready to navigate the market, connect with a local real estate agent for expert guidance.